CDfM Episode #3 Prediction: What year will Mars civilisation begin?

Welcome to Civilisation Design for Mars.

This time we predict when civilisation on Mars begins.

I’m designing a legal and ethical framework for a civilisation on our alternate planet as we become multi-planetary. This channel documents controversial and notable topics encountered along the way. All policies discussed are intended for Mars, not earth.

Today: Predicting when civilisation on Mars begins.

Is human civilisation on Mars years, decades or centuries away? How long will it take to build the foundation of the new civilisation? How do we define the beginning of civilisation on Mars? We look at these and other issues as we predict when life, and civilisation, begin on Mars.

Civilisation building takes time

It’s possible to imagine a fully functioning civilisation on Mars now. In reality, however, to get a sense of the time required to start a civilisation on our alternate planet, we break up the necessary steps into four phases of work. We explore the phases of work and predict how long they’ll take.

Phase one: successful arrival of humans on Mars

We are currently in phase one. No human has yet been to Mars but several motorised vehicles have.

phase one is currently an earth-based research and development phase, linked to the model for commercially viable space travel. This model posits that reusable rockets, creating a shuttle between earth and Mars, will bring down the cost of space travel to an economically viable level which enables multi-planetary human existence. Teams at SpaceX are currently creating a reusable shuttle to Mars called Starship. Starship not only has to shuttle to Mars and back. For phase one to be successful in the human civilisation mission to Mars, it has to safely shuttle humans.

Part of phase one will see attempted and successful Starship test flights to the moon and then to Mars, first carrying androids. Eventually a team of expert human astronauts will travel by Starship to Mars, confirm arrival and with some returning to earth whilst others remain on Mars. phase one will be complete when the shuttle between Mars and Earth works and humans astronauts can begin work on phase two. This will be the start of human life on Mars, but not yet Mars civilisation.

Time prediction for completing phase one:

The original date set for Starship launch to Mars was 20 24. This is the earliest possible arrival time on Mars. This deadline shifts as the engineering problems remain unsolved or are solved. Given the shuttle tests, android recce to Mars and human shuttle tests, the time range predicted for completion of phase one is 2029 at the earliest or, given likely challenges, 2055.

Phase two: humans build research base

Phase two is a series of high-risk human and technological missions to create a functioning base for a limited number of expert astronauts to survive on Mars initially. As they confirm and rebut assumptions about Mars, they will create a basic survival and research base. Similar to military missions on earth or space missions, the astronauts are highly trained, paid professionals who bear a high risk of death, illness and injury in phase two missions. This is especially due to atmospheric conditions harmful to human bodies on Mars, relative lack of information about the hostile environment, finite fuel, food, air and extremely limited infrastructure. Mars-reality and the human experience of attempting to be there, aided by past research, will inform and structure the work required in phase two and beyond.

Astronauts and infrastructure builders need to be able to exist - breathe, live, work and have access to basic utilities - on Mars, before they can start building infrastructure for a future civilisation. It’s a bit like safety on planes: they need to put on their own masks and start breathing before helping others. This may mean only short term shifts on Mars are possible initially. Working on the foundations of phase one, which assumes a working shuttle system between earth and Mars, phase two can be said to be complete when experts are able to survive on Mars short term, establish and maintain their own base from which they can commence with phase three works.

Time prediction for completing phase two:

It could take between two and 10 years for expert astronauts to deem their own human presence on Mars to be stable enough - in terms of short term health for example - to create a research base from which to proceed with phase three. phase two could therefore be complete between 2031 the earliest and 2065 in later predictions.

Is phase two already “civilisation”?

Civilisation is defined as “an advanced state of human society containing highly developed forms of government, culture, industry, and common social norms”. Let’s say there are between ten and 100 astronauts on Mars in phase two. Whilst these are highly trained professionals, supported by advanced technology, who are coming from an advanced state of human society on earth, phase two is not yet definable as civilisation. The astronauts will not have their own form of government, culture and industry which apply to their state of existence on Mars. Phase two is a necessary pre-civilisation step to arrive and understand the problems of surviving on Mars.

Phase three: building foundations of a civilisation

Phase three prepares the planet for non-expert citizens to live in a relatively stable and acceptable environment in the medium to long term on Mars. This phase would enable authorised immigration of non-astronaut humans from earth as the system of populating Mars.

It will only be appropriate to invite non-experts to live on Mars once there is an environment which can support them, for example, an atmosphere in which they can breathe, in which they can live without expectation of radiation leading to unreasonably premature death. Immigrants from earth should be able to take shelter, have some privacy and be comfortable enough - physically and psychologically - to live short, medium or even long term on Mars.

Much like building a city which did not previously exist, phase three is where the core civilisation design and build is focused. Without this infrastructure design, no human could arrive, or survive, on Mars. Resources will be mined on Mars and extracted from the atmosphere, brought from earth or other sources, to build systems of habitation, transport, shelter with relevant utilities and fuel, including reliable food sources for inhabitants.

Before the first non-expert humans arrive, immigrants moving from earth will need to understand the different sets of rights, responsibilities and duties they owe to others and themselves on Mars. Much like moving to another country, you must accept the laws of the land. In order to do this, there must be at least the beginning of a legal system there. 

Whilst Mars-only law will start to form during phases one and two as astronauts and private companies encounter Mars-specific problems which require decisions, phase three will create the foundation of a legal system for Mars. Mars’ legal system will be designed based on the most appropriate combination of earth legal systems, borrowing their basic legislation and laws which may have relevance to life on Mars. The design of the legal system will also be phased, to deal with the different stages of stability of the society there.

When the environment - atmospheric, legal and infrastructural - is deemed stable enough for non-expert humans to live life on Mars, as the final tests are being completed, training and selection programmes for the first non-expert citizens on earth will be underway. Earth immigration preparation commences as the final part of phase three.

Time prediction for completing phase three:

The earliest the foundations of the new civilisation could be ready for earth humans on mars is 2041, and the higher time range is 2085. phase three requires fully functioning and tested solutions to some of the biggest problems on Mars. phase three isn’t just a time for ideas and designs, they need to be built, tested, and work in reality.

Phase four: arrival of non-expert humans

Non-expert human immigrants from earth intending to commit to a medium or long term life on Mars will be the first intended inhabitants of the new civilisation. These are humans who have been socialised on earth and who wish to live the rest of their lives on Mars together. Initially these people will arrive in small groups to settle and see how they get on physically, psychologically and socially with one another.

The non-expert citizens on Mars will require great support, technologically, psychologically, socially, physically and in all facets of their life there. The existence of civilization infrastructure supporting life on Mars will require physical maintenance, monitoring, improvement and development. Therefore, the expert astronauts and infrastructure builders will be joined by many human support services, and remain part of the ecosystem of the civilisation on Mars, as well as the citizens themselves.

phase four can be said to be complete when multiple small groups of non-expert immigrants from earth are able to adjust and settle on Mars with all the technological and psychological support required. They should be able to live reasonably healthy, long lives, with the desire to stay on Mars and make it their home.

Is phase four “civilisation”?

phase four is the start of mars civilisation. However, phase four needs time to prove itself as stable. Therefore, civilisation can be said to start about 20 years into phase four, giving individual and collective human citizens time to have abandoned Mars or truly to have chosen to remain there, partaking in their own form of government together, and creating culture, industry, and common social norms, as per the definition of civilisation.

Time prediction for the start of civilisation on Mars:

Civilisation on Mars will start in the year 2061 at the earliest and 2105 in a later prediction.

Next time we look at the importance of reasons for going to Mars. That’s all for this episode. Please subscribe, share your thoughts in the comments and thanks for listening to Civilisation Design for Mars.

Copyright 2022 S J A Giblin